Det seneste årti har ikke været sjovt for bankaktierne. Først kom finanskrisen, der hev gulvtæppet væk under hele den etablerede finansverden, og efterfølgende fulgte et årti med renter så lave, at de for første gang i verdenshistorien har været muligt for danske boligejere at optage realkreditlån med negativ rente. Ikke et optimalt rentemiljø for en bank, der skal forsøge at tjene penge og skabe en passiv indkomst til sine aktionærer.
En bank, der imidlertid har haft det ekstraordinært svært, er Danske Bank. Helt og aldeles selvforskyldt er landets største bank havnet i den ene møgsag efter den anden. Det startede med hvidvaskningssagen fra Letland, som stadig hænger over banken som en tung dyne, og senest har der været flere sager med kunder, der har betalt for meget; bl.a. fordi banken har opkrævet mere, end den måtte.
Det har sat ridser i lakken og ikke mindst i aktiekursen – se blot, hvordan kurs danske bank aktier har udviklet sig siden 2018. Bedre bliver det ikke af, at banken står til at miste op imod 50.000 privatkunder i 2021; og et tab på 43.800 kunder året forinden.
Med andre ord er den danske finanskæmpe i knæ.
”Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”
Ovenstående citat kommer fra finansfyrsten Warren Buffet, og med det in mente kunne det være oplagt at kigge nærmere på Danske Bank som en mulig investeringscase. Aktiekursen er i bund – og selv om det samme kan siges om overskuddet, må man efterhånden stille sig selv spørgsmålet om, hvor meget værre det kan blive?
I skrivende stund handles Danske Bank til en P/E på omkring 11, hvilket i sig selv er lavt sammenlignet med andre selskaber i C25-indekset. Dette P/E-tal er sågar beregnet ud fra sidste års regnskab, hvor banken tjente DKK 4,6 mia., hvilket er væsentligt lavere end de DKK 15-20 mia., som banken har tjent hvert af de foregående fire år. Kan banken løfte sig op til blot halvdelen af tidligere tiders resultater, er der således grobund for en interessant investering.
Med til historien hører dog også, at Danske Bank for nyligt har været ude at sænke forventningerne til deres indtjening helt frem til 2023. Uanset hvor store muligheder, der kan anes i banken, er der derfor næppe heller nogen tvivl om, at en investering i Danske Bank primært vil være interessant for den langsigtede – og ikke mindst tålmodige – investor.
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